Baku do you think you are?

How do? Phil has posted below that the OnEurope team in Baku will be augmented (in size at least, I can’t possibly speculate on the quality) in Baku with the addition of moi and Jody West. We’re terribly excited to be bringing you some top-notch musings from the Land Of Fire and Brimstone, where our speciality will in all likelihood be the, erm, more social side of the goings-on. We shall be throwing ourselves headlong and selflessly into the local hospitality and keeping you up to date with the low down in the EuroClub and the gossip from the Miracle Apartments, although I do also plan to see a modicum of daylight to report on the delights of downtown Baku and environs. I lived in Russia as the Soviet Union collapsed around me in 1991 so I probably have a different take on going to Eurovision in a former Soviet republic than most travelling there from western Europe. I’m intrigued to see how much the social norms may be still recognisable, my experience being that odd things happen but odd solutions make them alright. It’s going to be a jolly adventure!

By way of a small introduction, lest you not already know me (in which case well done) my Eurovision interests span 5 decades from my very early childhood memories of Saturday night family viewing (and channel hopping during the dull bits) to full-on obsessional status since the early 90s. My first times at the Contest, or at least for the Friday night rehearsals, were in Birmingham 1998 and Stockholm 2000, and I went properly for the first time in Athens 2006. I’m also one of a team of five who produce Second Cherry, a London based second-chance party which we have thrown annually since 2006 and which I present with Jody.

So more musings to come from me, but in the meantime I’ll post a review of last night’s London Eurovision Party. Drop me a comment if you want to know anything, or as we get to Baku where we’ll be from late on Friday 18^th May.

Oh, and my all-important cheese credentials! I’m a full-on halloumi boy. Nothing better than a bit of squeaky cheese. 

Monty x

Honest Phil wll be putting his bookies cap on

Again this year - I'll be analysing the betting patterns and giving you some tips as to where to place your bets!!

I'm doing some analysis today so expect report nr 1 tomorrow!! ;)

Phil

So, you asked what we are doing in Baku?

Hopefully this should tell you all!!

As Someone once said

Reports of our death are greatly exaggerated. Thanks to our reader that posted that they thought we had all done a runner - nope, just had a major mobilisation at work ( I am an IT service desk manager in real life) but that's now done and our team is now assembled for the big shindig. I'm in London today so when back home, I'll fill you all in! Enjoy the can can though!!!!

Just cos we can (can)

Siegel - It's all YOUR fault!!

Six words each.

If I'd had less time, these would be longer...

MONTENEGRO - He's just talking words at me.
ICELAND - Dramatic silence is brilliant. More please!
GREECE - Buy one, get one absolutely free.
LATVIA - Paul McCarney's stopped answering his phone.
ALBANIA - One note is not a song.
ROMANIA - You can't go wrong with bagpipes.
SWITZERLAND - Swiss rock. Always a good idea.
BELGIUM - Would you sign our petition... non?
FINLAND - Second best Swedish Finnish entry - ever.
ISRAEL - I actually like this. It's doomed.
SAN MARINO - In Siegel's head, it's still 1980.
CYPRUS - First rehearsal could be quite entertaining.
DENMARK - Eurovision's safest country plays it safe.
RUSSIA - Georgian party will have better snacks.
HUNGARY - Surely that was *last* year's theme?
AUSTRIA - Nadine Beiler would have nailed this.
MOLDOVA - Clearly inspired by Humphrey Lyttleton's horn.
IRELAND - Other Irish musical artistes are available.

SERBIA - Law of diminishing returns seems applicable.
FYR MACEDONIA - Far less funny than Samo Ti.
NETHERLANDS - Because feathers worked well for Dustin.
MALTA - Stockholm Syndrome Ta'Qali style. It'll win!
BELARUS - Belarussian rock. Always a good idea.
PORTUGAL - Somehow feel I've heard it before.
UKRAINE - Eventually we'll assess Ukraine correctly. Eventually.
BULGARIA - Love unlimited. Points probably very limited.
SLOVENIA - Possible winner. But don't tell anyone.
CROATIA - According to Wikipedia, this song exists.
SWEDEN - So obviously winning, it'll surprise everybody.
GEORGIA - Will qualify, despite its best efforts.
TURKEY - Someone liked MFO as a kid...
ESTONIA - The 1990s want their song back.
SLOVAKIA - The 1980s want their song back.
NORWAY - Electronic farting is very much now.
BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA - Isn't this semifinal ever so lovely?
LITHUANIA - Tragically for Donny, love isn't deaf.

UNITED KINGDOM - Hindsight will make the outcome obvious.
FRANCE - Great song, but not exactly instant.
ITALY - Thinks it's better than it is.
AZERBAIJAN - Azeris master the art of invisibility.
SPAIN - Swedish ballad, Spanish diva: "fanwank" defined.
GERMANY - Europe picks up phone, orders pizza.

OH MY GOD, We're nearly at the end!!! ;)

Croatia

They pissed me off with this – principally cos it’s an album track that I hate – but hey, there you go.  Same old same old….

Sweden

You all know the hype, you all know  the song – sadly, though, for you, THIS SONG IS NOT WINNING.  There, I said it publically.  It’s going to qualify fo sho, but I can’t see it getting Mrs Ferira in Setubal picking the phone up for it.  What does it actually have going for it? – Good Tune?, Debatable.  Good Lyric? – Possibly, If Loreen actually learnt diction at the Stockholm Dancemusik  Conservatoire as she seems to mumble through the song – good stage show?  Not-so-much, more like a man dancing in his own Dandruff for me.  Now, don’t get me wrong it’ll do well – but not a winner. 

Georgia

Joker??Poker ??? It’s all a bit Lisa Del Bo on Acid for me!

Turkey

Can he do it??! ( See what I did there!??!) – I always thought Bonio were a brand of Dog chews, and indeed this is a bit of a dogs dinner of a song to be honest – full of nutritious meaty chunks that Eurovision fans love, with that subtle taste of familiarity and failure.  Probably get through, but more best in kennel than best of breed. 

Estonia

I couldn’t even remember how it went before doing this review – However having reminded myself of the lovely Ott, I tore my eyes away from him ( After deciding he looks like Chris thungummy who played Robin and is out of NCIS) and listened to the song – This is class with a capital F**K.  Jonsi made me cry…… Ott got me damn close and that’s not a bad thing – This has emotion written all the way through it, and he will perform the arse off this song.  It’s going to qualify easily. 

Slovakia

We all like a bit of rawk don’t we? Not so much – but it’s the best rock song this side of , well, this song to be honest.  Slovakia are going nowhere with this – but as a piece of music outside this contest, its not half bad.  Sadly, however, I have more chance of singing this song than it does of qualifying.

Norway

Following in the footsteps of….. well… Stig of the Dump, sorry Van Eijk, our Norwegian pop star Tooji dressed like a gangsta will try to engage the populace with his cheap Norwegian disco beats  - It’s immediate enough, he has some sort of stagecraft and wiggles a lot on the stage.  He gets the girls and the girly boys come over all unnecessary but, despite that, I can see this being televoted for – Juries, however, possibly directed against it – Qualifying definitely, Top 10 in the final should be a shoe in as well.   I also understand that in Eurovision terms, it’s “modern” – so 2001 then – also May 26^th is his Birthday, it’s written in the stars!

Bosnia AND Herzegovina

Not sure what to make of this song – although after :25 I want to say “ Get that Piano on Girders to Baku immediately!!!” – Typical Balkan Ballad fest to be honest – builds nicely and, again, they have stuck to what they know and will get votes from the usual places, including the juries.  It should qualify, but should struggle in the final.

Lithuania

Well well well, He’s clearly trying to be Stevie Wonder, or Jordie from Star Trek (The next generation, clearly) – but he ditches that idea and sings………. A typical Lithuanian entry, well at least two because that’s the amount of songs they have shoehorned into this one, and is, therefore, doomed to failure.  – It must be hard for someone to sing a song that’s doomed from the start – but that’s what he has. 

View from the Kiek in de Kök - Part 5

So by the time these final six songs get to perform in front of an audience of music lovers, 18 songs will have fallen by the wayside. Doubtless some of your favourites will be among then, and doubtless plenty of those I’ve tipped for finalists spots will have gone too. Either that, or I’ll be collecting a handsome number of Azeri Manats from the Serviette of Doom.

I’ll try and ignore the obvious proviso that how these songs fare may be affected by the songs that eventually get drawn around them. But as I gaze over yonder to the church of St Olav (at one time the world’s tallest building), I ask myself what I think of them…?

United Kingdom – Now I know in one of my former blogs I said that Eurovision is a young person’s game. But these words may come back to haunt me when Mr Dorsey-as-was performs his song a second time on 26 May as the credits roll up at the end. If you’ve got a seasoned performer singing a song suited to them, age is irrelevant. Cut back on the high risk strategies of fire-eating, women spinning around in boxes, fat guys dressed as penguins and twins of restricted growth, and a carefully crafted song in the right pair of hands will always do well. The Hump is on first, so Mrs Peres de Sousa of Faro will get to see this marvellous song before her port-induced stupor kicks in. So it might, just might, surprise us all. Go the Hump is what I say.

France – Air Miles Anggun appears to have been going where no French performer has gone before, namely every national final going, including her little stint in a Hellenic shopping centre. The French aren’t known for casting their net far beyond Francophone shores for Eurovision but I think this is a pretty good effort. It’s instantly catchy and includes bits in French and, heaven forefend, English. And she’s fairly easy on the eye too. All in all, them Frenchies haven’t done half bad.

Italy – A welcome return from the cold last year, our Italian cousins have kept up the good work, even though they may have been spooked by the prospect of winning and so changed their song. To my ears, it has that same friendly vibe that Serbia’s Nina gave us last year. It’s altogether inoffensive and what’s not to like about a decent Italian song. Top 10? I hope so. Top 5? Maybe. Winner? I doubt it.

Azerbaijan – Hmmm. What to say without sounding unduly harsh? Well, she looks pretty. A lot of the fannage out there really like this but I think it’s just a ballad too far. No doubt she’ll perform it well – better than her ‘interesting’ tribute to Whitney Houston all those months ago anyway – and our Oghuz hosts will go all out to showcase their three minutes of host-nation pride. But it just doesn’t hit me in the same way other songs have this year. It’ll be a respectable-for-the-host-nation top 10, but I can’t see the Eurovision circus having a second year on the shores of the Caspian Sea.

Spain – I’ve said it many times that this country has the potential to easily win Eurovision, and I’d positively relish two weeks of Contested-ness near the Costa Brava. But like their football team did for many many years, Spain just flatter to deceive. They missed a trick last year when they picked the wrong song for Lucía Peréz. This song is their best entry for a few years and may well give them their best showing since 2004. But it’s not a winner.

Germany – It’s a little known fact that this guy used to be called Etruscan Toss until they realised it might offend some quarters of Europe. So Roman Lob he is. I understand that this song has three illustrious British born writers, including Jamie Cullum. It’s another one that has something about it, but I can’t quite put my finger on what it is. It’s not as dull as some people claim, and he has a decent enough voice. The songs around this one will be key to how it does.

So can I pick a winner? Can I b*gg*ry. I rarely have in the past, so I won't this time. Just as long as the 'right' song wins. And as long as the show is enjoyable, who cares?

R x

How Azerbaijan won Eurovision by accident

When Ell and Nikki won the Eurovision Song Contest for Azerbaijan last May there were immediate loud cries of “Foul” ringing out through the concourses of the Esprit Arena. There had been accusations of dodgy dealings and backhanders from this Caucasian nation for as long as they’d been in the contest, and their win, coming as it did with such an unspectacular tune, seemed to underline this fear – particularly as their song took a unexpected charge up the betting in the last few hours before the contest finally began.

Somebody had surely got wind of the story that the contest had been fixed in their favour and whacked a massive bet on? 

It’s a popular view, but one that can be proved almost certainly untrue if you cast a statistical eye over last year’s results. For it appears that rather than taking the Eurovision crown by any grave conspiracy, Azerbaijan actually won the 2011 contest by complete accident. And here’s how…

* The scoring was incredibly and quite unpredictably spread out. A record 20 countries gained at least one set of the maximum twelve points - with only Estonia, Russia, Switzerland, Serbia and rather surprisingly the home nation Germany missing out.

* Azerbaijan themselves only received the maximum 12 points from a record low of three juries – one less than the previous year when they came fifth. AySel & Arash’s third place came with only a single maximum, but received a hefty eight ten pointers along the way.

* Of the most recent winners, Russia (2008) got seven lots of 12, Serbia (2007) and Germany (2010) got nine each, while Norway (2009) got a massive 16.

* Running Scared was also out-scored for twelve pointers in 2011 by Bosnia (five) and Italy (four), while Denmark, Georgia, Ireland and Ukraine all tied them with three maximums apiece.

* The winning song got the lowest percentage of the overall vote since Anne-Marie David won for Luxembourg in 1973.

* It also earned the lowest winning percentage in the history of the 12 points, 10 points, 8 points voting system.

* On top of all that, it's the lowest scoring winner since the introduction of two semi-finals.

* Tellingly, Running Scared failed to get any votes at all from an unprecedented 12 juries – where usually the winner only drops votes from a small handful of countries at the most. (Lena and Marija S dropped five, Dima dropped six, and the boy Ryback got votes from every single jury).

* Azerbaijan also scored six fewer points than Katrina & the Waves's 1997 victor Love Shine A Light. But the UK's last winner was only able to call on votes from 25 juries, whereas Ell & Nikki had a whopping 43 potential nations who could have thrown the points their way. 

As statistics go, that lot do appear pretty conclusive.

But while it is indeed true that the scoring at Eurovision has become far more susceptible to nobbling since the reintroduction of the juries, the televoting is still a vast and complex beast, and it would be a massive undertaking to co-ordinate that kind of continent-wide scam. Close inspection of the freakishly spread out points allocation last year suggests that this most probably didn’t happen in any successful way.

Aside from all these facts and figures, you must also take into consideration the fact that traditional vote sponges (and allies to Azerbaijan) Russia and Turkey had sent uncharacteristically weak songs. The points they didn’t get had to go somewhere, and Azerbaijan was a likely first port of call.

Also remember that despite not really liking at the time, you’ve been singing Running Scared in your head at least once a week since last May – so it must surely have been a better song than you first gave it credit for. Add these factors to the huge body of statistical evidence I’ve outlined above and you’ll have to agree, however churlishly, that it can’t have won by anything other than fair means.

After all, looking at those scores in detail it’s evidently clear that anyone who actually tried to fix last year’s contest, from whatever nation, must have been really, really shit at it.

Are we STILL reviewing these fecking songs?!?!?!

Serbia

He's as dependable as your local LibDem councillor is old Zelikjo, you know what you're gonna get. Lots of bluster, lots of knocking on doors in his constituency to ask if you want to vote for him, you*say* yes, but ultimately he comes in 3rd. And so it is with his latest Lane Moje Copy.  I understand why people think this will do well, but I think it still misses the mark, his constituency will vote for it, don’t think the swingometer makes it across the winning line.  Qualifying? - Yes

Macedonia ( FYR or not, depending on leanings)

We demanded Samo Ti the 2nd and got something completely different.  I'm not sure what to make of it - I think its going to grow on me, however the Juries might like it, but its not televoter friendly - doesn't stop it being good, though but the 2 songs sellotaped together feel might.  Close, but no cigar - not qualifying  

Netherlands

Well when I was 5 or, indeed 3, it was 1983 or 1981, which is precisely where this song takes me back to.  Its nostalgia with a capital Cheese, and yet - it has a sweet understated quality which never fails to get me humming to it.  All the bollocks about red Indians and PC stuff really is just that, bollocks! - It's cowboys and Indians, not cowboys and native American indigenous people FFS.  Anyway back to the song, I don’t know if Joan will be right up your Street, but it should well qualify on niceness alone.

Malta

We were there when this beat Deborah C Feat.Layla James into not-very-close-to-the-top place ( indeed my slightly thinning hairline and large frame is plastered ALL over goddam youtube in every bloody Maltese video, but that’s front row seats for you!).  Kurt's preview video is quite frankly hideously wooden and doesn’t represent what an engaging live singer he actually is so discount that.  His live Final performance in Ta Qali should get his close to qualifying, but 8th-14th place is the best he can hope for.

Belarus

If ever you have asked yourself the question " That Magnus Carlsson from Barbados and Alcazar, if he had a  younger brother, would he be Belarusian?" then firstly, GET OUT MORE, and secondly, the answer is yes! - For those of us of an older age, this reminds us (and by us, I mean me) of something from the Swedish final of 1998, but it is revolutionary in terms of Belarusian Eurovision Entries.  I think its just about strong enough to get through on likeability and the schlagerness of it is good, although he shouldn’t dress in his best BMX kit in Baku though.

Portugal

And so to my friend Carlos and Mr Eurovision Andrej Babic writing for Portugal.  I'm rather miffed that RTP won't let Andrej on stage or anywhere near this entry, but are quite happy to write genius like this.  Senhora Do Mar was indeed a high water mark ( see what I did there?!?) with regards to Portuguese Fado in Eurovision and, despite FDC 2012 being Fado esque in style (year of it, dontcha know?!) - This is lighter than Senhora.... Diet Senhora, if you will, with a diet singer in Filipa Sousa.   It doesn't have the intensity or the "fuck me!" moments, sadly, not qualifying but I still think its ace.

Ukraine

Be her Guest?? - Oh all right then, but then again, would YOU refuse Gaitana?  She is a singer in the vain of Ani Lorak but she doesn’t have Ani's songs, or stage craft, but I will pay money to see cornet players on stage in Baku.  Qualifying easily though.

Bulgaria

Love Unlimited you say?! I suspect its limited to 2:59 to be quite honest with you.  Bulgaria's best attempt since Voda I would hazard to say, however it seems to be lacking something again, though Sofi is doing a darn good job selling the song to be honest.  Qualifying? - Nope, just missing out

Slovenia

I can't believe that Eva is only SIXTEEN years of age, firstly, if anyone saw her perform this song in the EMA ( well you all should have, its the goddam preview video!), you can't fail to be blown away by the talent and vocal range that she has.  RTVSLO has decreed it to be in Slovene, and that’s the right decision as far as I am concerned, it has all the right ingredients for a good song, cracking backing singers, Israeli dance moves, Molditva moments... it borrows the lot from everyone, her talent just drives this forward and will rightly qualify.  Unfortunately come the final, I fear she'll have to take back all of the things she borrowed to their rightful owners and she might get swallowed up, but lets hope not ;)